Extreme Climate Events in India - Key Points and Way Forward

Over the past few decades, India has been a victim of environmental degradation and climate change events. Be it the high levels of pollution in Delhi, cloud burst in Kedarnath, severe floods in Bihar, Kerala and Assam, increasing intensity of cyclone in Coastal Andhra and Tamil Nadu and even water scarcity that we see in several regions of India- all of these are a result of increasing industrial activities and climate change in India. All these events have caused huge losses in terms of human deaths and economy. The worst hit sector is the agriculture sector which is heavily dependent on monsoons in India. Hence, there is a need for us to analyze the cause of such extreme events and be prepared to manage, mitigate and even adapt to such extreme climate events in India to reduce risk and losses. 

This article is a summary of a report released by Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) called "Preparing India for Extreme Climate Events".

Report: Preparing India for Extreme Climate Events 

By- Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) 

Key Data Points from the Report: 

• 75% of districts in India are hotspots of extreme climate events such as cyclones, floods, droughts, heat waves and cold waves. 
• India is 5th most vulnerable country in terms of extreme climate event & it is set to become the world’s flood capital 
• Frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of extreme events have risen in recent decades 
• Between 1970-2005 – 250 extreme climate events (in 35 years) 
• Between 2005-2020 – 310 extreme climate events (in 15 years) 
• 4,95,000 human deaths across the world in 1999-2018 due to this 
• More than 12,000 extreme weather events led to losses worth USD 3.54 trillion (measured in terms of purchasing power parity or PPP) during 1999-2018 
• Extreme climate events are a result of 0.6 deg Celsius rise in last 100 years 
• Cyclone frequency doubled; number of districts affected by cyclones tripled 
• 258 districts especially along eastern coastline affected by cyclone 
• Reasons for increased cyclonic activities in India – East coast’s warming regional microclimate, land-use change, degrading forest 
• 2000-2009 – increase in flood events and associated flood events – 473 districts affected 
• Consequences of increased flooding - landslide, heavy rainfall, hailstorms, thunderstorms and cloudbursts – increased by over 20 times 
• Reason for increased flooding – urban heat island phenomenon, sea-level rise due to glacial melts, increased cyclones 
• Number of rains during monsoon decreased, single day extreme rainfall events increasing – another reason for floods 
• 6 of 8 most flood prone districts are located in Assam 
• Yearly average droughts increased 13 times after 2005 
• Until 2005, the number of districts affected by drought was six, but after 2005 this figure rose to 79 
• Intensity of damage in terms of loss of life has reduced significantly; droughts increase uncertainties related to agriculture and rural livelihoods 
• Drought-affected district hotspots in – Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra 
• Coastal southern Indian states are increasingly witnessing more droughts. 
• Weakening of monsoons due to rising micro-temperatures. 
• Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh saw severe water scarcity during 2015 due to record-breaking temperatures during summer and weakening monsoons 
• 2 patterns observed: flood-prone have now become drought-prone and vice versa (OR) facing floods and droughts simultaneously (in Bihar, UP, Odisha, TN) - unusual and alarming 
• Shifting of Microclimatic zones - areas where the weather is different from surrounding areas, are shifting across various districts of India 
• Reasons for shifting of microclimatic zones - change in land-use patterns, disappearing wetlands and natural ecosystems by encroachment, and urban heat islands that traps heat locally 
• Consequences of shifting of microclimatic zones – disruption across sectors - every 2 degrees C rise in annual mean temperature will reduce agricultural productivity by 15-20% 

Way Forward: 

• Develop a Climate Risk Atlas – to map critical vulnerabilities  
• Develop Emergency Warning System 
• Standardize Risk assessment at all levels - district, regional, state, national levels 
• Improve adaptive and resilience capacity - to climate-proof lives, livelihoods and investments 
• Public-Private-Partnership & increased participation from individuals to mitigate climate change
• Increase preparedness and awareness of low-probability events among the masses as these are the events which are catastrophic and cause major losses in terms of life, property and economy
• Need of risk financing instruments to help respond to challenges posed by such events, similar to Green Climate Fund.