Counting COVID Deaths

-


Estimating the excess deaths

  • To get the number of deaths from all causes in a defined time period and compare it with the same time period of the previous years. (Time period = specific months or a year)
  • "Excess" death are all deaths beyond what is considered "normal" for that area and time; during a disaster(pandemic-covid) excess deaths are attributed to direct/indirect causes of the disaster
  • It is an indirect approach 
  • The difference between actual mortality rate and the expected death rate gives an estimate of the Covid toll

Causes of deaths when 'excess deaths' were estimated were -

  • Deaths due to Covid infections
  • Deaths due to delayed or deferred healthcare
  • Mental health disorders, alcohol/drug use
  • Fatalities among chronically ills with cardiovascular or respiratory ailments who succumbed to Covid instead of their other chronic medical conditions
  • Lower fatalities due to accidents (as a result of lockdowns - not many people went out)
  • Lower fatalities due to other viruses (as a result of lockdown, social distancing, etc.)

Need for accurate death data

  • To understand the magnitude of the pandemic
  • To identify and classify vulnerability age groups
  • Helps in better management of disaster and saving lives
  • To identify the real cause of deaths - death rate can be high not only because of COVID, but also because of oxygen shortages, lack of ventilators (lack of health infrastructure), and other diseases (which in normal circumstances could be saved with normal hospitalization)
  • For impact analysis
  • Different estimates leads to confusion among policy makers and the public
  • Accurate data provides valuable information to policymakers developing response & recovery plans

Why do we need the "excess" death approach for counting COVID-19 deaths?

  • Direct counting of COVID deaths is problematic, i.e., it is challenging to keep track due to the pace of death rate.
  • Undercounting of deaths due lower testing and reporting - with excess death approach the severity of the pandemic/disaster can be assessed
  • Lack of credibility and availability of statistics across the world
  • Excess death analysis includes - (all these, below, should be considered under impact analysis)
    • COVID deaths
    • Deaths as a consequence of COVID pandemic
      • Deaths due to lack of healthcare infra - beds, ICUs, ventilators, etc.
      •  Lack of resources during pandemic - eg. Oxygen, medicines, etc.
      • Lack of man-power
  • gives a better look at cause-specific deaths

Why is the death count underestimated?

  • Poor healthcare infrastructure 
  • Inadequate record keeping 
  • Limited access to healthcare facilities
  • General under-reporting of deaths
  • Political interference

Some Important Facts

  • Data released by 'Mumbai Corporation of Greater Mumbai' shows 22% excess deaths during 2020 in Mumbai region.
  • Analysis of data of 2.32 lakh households by the CMIE (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd.) found that excess deaths between May and August 2020 (4months) numbered almost twice as many as compared with the same period in past years.
  • Data from the Civil Registration System (CRS) of district Faridabad in Haryana, with 100% registration of deaths in the past few years, found that 7% higher deaths have been reported in 2020 as compared to 2016-19, with a 17% increase in deaths above 60 years, during the pandemic peak in the district. This shows us that older population is more vulnerable to COVID.
  • Deaths have been under-reported in almost every country. In India, as of June 2021, excess death approach shows the death count to be above 6 lakhs while the no of deaths reported are just above 2 lakhs

Is excess death approach flawless?

No.

  • There are problems associated with the application of this model across geographies & demographics
  • Although the overall estimate may be robust, estimates at regional level are highly inaccurate because of extremely uneven quality of data available
  • Dip in testing rates may cause the lowering of case count which influence the count of casualties attributed to Covid
  • There is wide variation in test rates across regions which contribute to regional inaccuracies
    • Eg- Bihar's test rates were lower than that of Delhi's, Kerala's & Maharashtra's during the 2nd wave. The case count and the death toll in Bihar are likely to deviate from the real numbers far more widely than the other States
    • The actual covid deaths in Maharashtra & Kerala is higher than the official figure, but the extent of the undercount is much smaller than in the rest of the country. This is because of better health reporting & surveillance system in these 2 states.
  • It is likely to miss the extent of undercount due to lack of data

Apart from ranking countries based on casualties, there is a need to group countries based on either income or geographical lines, etc. to get a clearer picture of the extent of Covid deaths/undercounts


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Why is 5G geting delayed in India? What India is missing out on because of this?

-
Image
5th generation mobile network, also called 5G, will prove to be much faster than the current 4G networks, with negligible response delay. The peak network data speeds are expected to be in the range of 2 to 20 Gigabits per second or Gbps. At present 4G is giving us 6 to 7 Mbps in India which is sufficient for playing online games, browsing the internet and streaming netflix. 5G is expected to help build newer, emerging technologies such as IOT and machine-to-machine interactions giving rise to Industrial Revolution 4.0. Some countries such as South Korea and the U.S. have already begun rolling out commercial 5G services. But there are a certain challenges delaying the enrollment of 5G in India. Before going to the challenges, we must know what opportunities we are missing out by delaying 5G in India WHY INDIA NEEDS 5G? According to a government-appointed panel, 5G is expected to create a cumulative economic impact of $1 trillion in India by 2035. According to another report by Ericsson...
Read more

POVERTY: A threat to prosperity

-
Image
It is impossible for a beggar on the streets to get educated and therefore a good employment in the future. His dreams of living in a decent house are shattered, in fact it's a big achievement for him to get at least one square meal a day. Dr APJ Abdul Kalam once said "In a democracy the well-being, individuality and happiness of every citizen is important for the overall prosperity, peace and happiness of a nation." Thus, we have to end poverty of all forms to ensure prosperity.  Poverty has been, and still is, the biggest challenge to mankind. To overcome this challenge, we must delve deep into the subject and understand the root cause of poverty. For this we must first understand its definition. According to the Human Development Report of 1997, poverty can be viewed as denial of opportunities to lead a long, healthy, creative life, and to enjoy a decent standard of living, freedom, dignity, self-respect and the respect of others. Since one can interpret the meaning ...
Read more

DIRECTIVE PRINCIPLES OF STATE POLICY (DPSPs)

-
Image
Borrowed from the Irish Constitution, Directive Principles of State Policy are enshrined in Part IV of the Indian Constitution from Articles 36 to  51. These principles act as a  guide or instructions to the government while making laws . They are  fundamental in governance of the country  and direct the path  towards a welfare state . What are these Principles? How are they classified? How are they enforced? Why do we need them? Do they suplement or contradict Fundamental Rights? And, are they perfect? Let's see. WHAT ARE THE DIRECTIVE PRINCIPLES OF STATE POLICY (DPSPs)? As mentioned, these directives are the guidelines for the State to be kept in view while framing laws. They are the goals of the government to be fulfilled over a period of time for the welfare of the people. While the Fundamental Rights enshrined in Part III of the Constitution help in achieving political democracy, DPSPs help in achieving social and economic democracy. Together they help in a...
Read more